Cash of the Future

Euro banknotes are an anchor of stability and confidence, both in everyday life as well as in many crises. The demand for cash is still growing and banknotes and coins are very popular means of payment at the point of sale in Germany. In order to improve the resilience of the cash cycle further, the Bundesbank is exploring new paths in thinking about cash of the future. In a highly volatile and fast changing world, as we face it today, it might not be enough to analyse current conditions and developments – we also have to think about the major impact factors shaping the future path of cash in the next 15 to 20 years. One of these factors, a megatrend that has already changed and surely will change our daily life is digitalisation. It has an impact not only in form of technical innovations, but also direct or indirect impact on everyday objects like cash and in the behaviour of citizens. Usually, we focus on such technical developments in the banknote industry, but there are other important impact factors. In comparison to the past, the citizens of today have the choice for a certain means of payment. To ensure that this choice is still possible in the future, it is important to have a resilient and efficient cash cycle. A first step is to understand future reasons why citizens decide for a certain means of payment and how cash and the cash cycle can meet the needs. Using the scenario technique, we imagine how the cash of the future and the future cash cycle might look like in 15 to 20 years: What kind of properties does cash need to be attractive for the users and what can we do in the present time to achieve this goal?